Modeling Hospitals' Adaptive Capacity during a Loss of Infrastructure Services

Vugrin ED, Verzi SJ, Finley PD, Turnquist MA, Griffin AR, Ricci KA, Wyte-Lake T. J Health Eng. 2015;6(1):85-120. doi: 10.1260/2040-2295.6.1.85.

Resilience in hospitals - their ability to withstand, adapt to, and rapidly recover from disruptive events - is vital to their role as part of national critical infrastructure. This paper presents a model to provide planning guidance to decision makers about how to make hospitals more resilient against possible disruption scenarios. This model represents a hospital's adaptive capacities that are leveraged to care for patients during loss of infrastructure services (power, water, etc.). The model is an optimization that reallocates and substitutes resources to keep patients in a high care state or allocates resources to allow evacuation if necessary. An illustrative example demonstrates how the model might be used in practice.

Key Words: Evacuation; Hospital; Infrastructure Disruption; Modeling; Resilience